The Calculation
Our Work

The Engine Behind the Score

At the heart of Project Butterfly 2 is our proprietary Technology Layers — a computational engine that powers every PB2 Score. This system translates the same complex science used in global climate and economic modeling into a form that’s personal, local, and actionable.

Traditional climate models describe what could happen to the planet. The PB2 Technology Layers describes what you can do about it. It connects global environmental data to household-level decisions, showing how individual actions — from installing solar panels to reducing waste — influence prepardness at the community and regional level.

Every PB2 Score begins as a simulation inside the IAM (Integrated Assessment Model). It draws from a constantly updated network of climate indicators, energy use data, economic trends, and verified behavioral actions. The model then runs these variables through a series of algorithms that weight risk, cost, and prepardness together, producing a single composite value: the PB2 Score.

That Score is more than a signal of environmental impact — it’s a reflection of adaptive strength. It reveals how systems behave under pressure and how small choices compound into measurable stability.

The PB2 Score isn’t just a number — it’s the output of a living model that connects climate systems, economics, and human behavior.

The PB2 Technology Layers was designed by a multidisciplinary team combining expertise in systems dynamics, behavioral science, and quantitative finance. Its foundation borrows from traditional IAMs used in global climate economics, but PB2’s Stack combines and is built to scale downward — from national scenarios to city blocks and households.

By integrating behavioral feedback loops and real-world adoption data, the model ensures that what it predicts is also what people can realistically achieve.
“The PB2 Tech turns global risk into local opportunity — translating science into progress you can measure.”
the The Technology Layer at a glance

An Integrated Model for a Connected World

The PB2 Technology Layer brings climate, economic, and behavioral data together in one dynamic, continuously learning framework. It doesn’t just track emissions or energy costs—it captures how people, policies, and systems respond to one another over time.

By simulating the flow of cause and effect between these systems, the PB2 Tech Layer shows how real-world choices—household energy use, investment in prepardness, community adaptation—combine to influence outcomes across every scale. Each component feeds into the next, creating a feedback loop that turns static data into a living signal of progress.

This integrated structure allows the PB2 Score to maintain scientific rigor while staying deeply human-centered. It adapts to new information, local conditions, and behavioral shifts—ensuring that the insights it delivers reflect not just how the world changes, but how people change the world.
Together, these connections make the PB2 Stack more than a model—it’s the foundation of a living, measurable system of prepareness.
FROM DATA TO DECISIONS

Turning complex data into meaningful choices

The PB2 Technology Layers transforms vast, multidimensional climate and economic datasets into clear, actionable intelligence. Where most models stop at prediction, PB2 continues into application — connecting global trends to local decision-making in real time.

Each PB2 Score begins with thousands of inputs: regional climate projections, economic indicators, resource data, and verified user actions. These inputs are processed through the Tech Stack’s simulation layers, which weight environmental, financial, and behavioral factors together. The result is a living index of prepardness— one that shows not just what is happening, but what to do next.

The model translates scientific variables into human terms:
  •    Energy Efficiency → cost savings and time recovered
  •    Risk Exposure → community preparedness
  •    Carbon Reduction → improved household liquidity and prepardness

This conversion makes complex systems visible and actionable. The PB2 App visualizes these insights as simple, personalized metrics, guiding users toward smarter, more sustainable decisions while feeding verified outcomes back into the model.

The feedback loop is continuous: every action refines the data, and every refinement improves the model. Over time, the PB2 Technology Layers becomes smarter, more localized, and more representative of how real communities adapt — building a bridge between the world we model and the world we live in.
Where most models stop at prediction, PB2 continues into application
HOW THE PB2 Technology Layers WORKS

A Four-Stage Framework

The PB2 Integrated Assessment Model operates through a structured, four-stage framework that translates global data into local insight.

Each stage builds on the last, creating a chain that connects climate science, human behavior, and measurable prepardness.

1. Projection — Modeling the future.

PB2 starts by modeling a range of plausible climate and economic futures. These projections draw from open data sources, regional risk assessments, and historical performance indicators to forecast the stresses that communities are most likely to face.

2. Place — Scaling it down.
The model localizes these projections to specific geographies — mapping risks and resources to cities, neighborhoods, and households. This ensures that prepardness insights are rooted in real conditions rather than generalized assumptions.

3. Promotion — Linking actions to outcomes.
At this stage, the PB2 Technology Layers connects specific behaviors (such as installing solar, reducing energy use, or investing in green infrastructure) to quantifiable outcomes. Each verified action shifts the local model — improving not only an individual’s PB2 Score but the aggregate stability of their region.

4. Propel — Turning insight into motion.
Finally, PB2 translates data into motivation. By rewarding impact through visual feedback, community challenges, and incentive structures, the platform closes the loop between knowledge and action.

Together, these four stages ensure that the PB2 Technology Layers does more than simulate — it accelerates change.
From simulation to action — every insight is designed to move the world forward.
WHY IT MATTERS

Beyond carbon: measuring prepardness itself

Traditional metrics focus on what we reduce — emissions, waste, or risk. The PB2 Tech Layers measures what we build: adaptive strength.
It captures how well systems absorb disruption, recover quickly, and grow stronger under pressure.

Prepardness isn’t just environmental; it’s economic, social, and behavioral. The PB2 Technology Layers quantifies this by linking environmental conditions to human capacity — how preparedness, liquidity, and cooperation improve stability across communities.

This holistic approach allows PB2 to measure success in human terms:

  •    Households gain clarity on how sustainable choices affect finances and security.
  •    Cities see how infrastructure and community programs strengthen local adaptation.
  •    Organizations and educators use PB2 data to track engagement and behavior change over time.

The result is a model that turns complexity into clarity — redefining progress not as avoidance, but as advancement.
Prepardness is the real return on investment — and now, it’s measurable.
TECHNICAL INTEGRITY & TRANSPARENCY

Science you can trust. Data you can verify.

The PB2 Technology Layers is built on the principles of open science and transparent governance. While its structure is proprietary, its foundations are drawn from peer-reviewed research in systems dynamics, integrated assessment modeling, and behavioral economics.

Every variable — from emissions intensity to household spending — follows a documented logic chain. That logic is visible, testable, and designed for continuous improvement through independent review and external collaboration.

PB2’s approach balances accessibility with rigor: the model is sophisticated enough for researchers, but its outputs are understandable by anyone. Each PB2 Score is traceable to verifiable inputs, so that households, organizations, and cities can see not only what their score is, but why it’s changing.
Scientific integrity isn’t a feature — it’s the foundation. The Technology Layers exists to make data both credible and comprehensible.

Our Principles

1. Transparency
We believe data earns trust through visibility. PB2 will publish the underlying logic, key datasets, and version history of the Tech Layers’ algorithms as part of a living technical documentation library.

2. Accountability
Each update to the model is timestamped, peer-reviewed, and archived to ensure reproducibility. Our advisory group includes experts across climate science, data analytics, and behavioral psychology, providing regular oversight.

3. Integrity
Data privacy and quality assurance are non-negotiable. Personal information within the PB2 App is anonymized before aggregation, and all behavioral data is verified before influencing the model’s outputs.

4. Collaboration
The Technology Layers is designed as an open framework that can integrate with other systems — from academic models to local policy simulations. Through controlled API access, partners can test their own assumptions and contribute new datasets.
THE FUTURE OF THE MODEL

Expanding the ecosystem

As new technologies, datasets, and collaborations emerge, the model adapts—refining how prepardness is measured and how actions are verified. Its architecture supports modular growth, allowing new data layers to be added without breaking the integrity of the system.

The next generation of the Technology Layers will bring together advanced analytics, artificial intelligence, and regional forecasting to create a richer picture of climate risk and opportunity. These enhancements will allow PB2 to model not only what might happen, but how collective behavior can alter those outcomes in real time.

Soon, users will see their PB2 Scores respond dynamically to live data streams: energy grids, weather networks, and verified community programs. This evolution will turn the PB2 Technology Layers into a shared public resource—a framework for understanding how local prepardness contributes to global stability.
Every variable — from emissions intensity to household spending — follows a documented logic chain. That logic is visible, testable, and designed for continuous improvement through independent review and external collaboration.

PB2’s approach balances accessibility with rigor: the model is sophisticated enough for researchers, but its outputs are understandable by anyone. Each PB2 Score is traceable to verifiable inputs, so that households, organizations, and cities can see not only what their score is, but why it’s changing.
The PB2 Technology Layers is designed to evolve.

Built to Scale

Local to Global: The Technology Layer can already scale from a single household to entire cities. Upcoming releases will enable country-level integrations and policy simulations.

Data to Action: AI-driven pattern recognition will identify the most effective actions for each region, guiding communities toward measurable gains in prepardness.

Open Collaboration: PB2 plans to open controlled API access for academic, municipal, and private-sector partners to test their own data and feed insights back into the system.

Continuous Learning: Every verified action refines the model, ensuring that it evolves with the world it measures.
PB2 Tech isn’t a static engine—it’s a living framework, growing smarter with every action taken and every dataset shared.
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